Comment author:conchis
26 July 2009 07:54:57PM
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1 point
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Wrong. If all black boxes do obey their specified formulas, then every single time you call the other person a liar, you will be wrong. P(wrong|"false") ~ 1.

Ok, bear with me. cousin_it's claim was that P(wrong|boxes-obey-formulas)<=.1, am I right? I get that P(wrong|"false" & boxes-obey-formulas) ~ 1, so the denial of cousin_it's claim seems to require P("false"|boxes-obey-formulas) > .1? I assumed that the point was precisely that the frequentist procedure will give you P("false"|boxes-obey-formulas)<=.1. Is that wrong?

## Comments (155)

Best*2 points [-]Thanks for the catch, struck out that part.

Yes, you can get your priors from the same source they get experimental setups: the world. Except this source doesn't provide priors.

ETA: likelihood ratios don't seem to communicate the same info about the world as confidence intervals to me. Can you clarify?

*1 point [-]Ok, bear with me. cousin_it's claim was that P(wrong|boxes-obey-formulas)<=.1, am I right? I get that P(wrong|"false" & boxes-obey-formulas) ~ 1, so the denial of cousin_it's claim seems to require P("false"|boxes-obey-formulas) > .1? I assumed that the point was precisely that the frequentist procedure will give you P("false"|boxes-obey-formulas)<=.1. Is that wrong?

*2 points [-]My claim was what Eliezer said, and it was incorrect. Other than that, your comment is correct.

Ah, I parsed it wrongly. Whoops. Would it be worth replacing it with a corrected claim rather than just striking it?

*0 points [-]Done. Thanks for the help!