byrnema comments on Bayesian Flame - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (155)
In the "correct" formulation of the problem (the one in which the correct answer is 1/3), the frequentist tells us what the mother said as a given assumption; considering the prior <1 probability of this is rendered irrelevant because we are now working in the subset of probability space where she said that.
Considering whether a theory is true is science -- I completely agree science has important, necessary Bayesian elements.
Considering whether a theory is true is not science, althought the two are certainly useful to each other.