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wedrifid comments on Bayesian Flame - Less Wrong

37 Post author: cousin_it 26 July 2009 04:49PM

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Comment author: wedrifid 27 July 2009 01:43:55PM 0 points [-]

Sure. :)

But let me warn you... I actually predict my calibration to be pretty darn awful.

Comment author: Cyan 27 July 2009 03:00:29PM 0 points [-]

We need a trusted third party.

Comment author: wedrifid 27 July 2009 03:23:27PM 0 points [-]

Find a candidate.

I was about to suggest we could just bet raw ego points by publicly posting here... but then I realised I prove my point just by playing.

It should be obvious, by the way, that if the predictions you have me make pertain to black boxes that you construct then I would only bet if the odds gave a money pump. There are few cases in which I would expect my calibration to be superior to what you could predict with complete knowledge of the distribution.

Comment author: Cyan 27 July 2009 03:33:34PM *  1 point [-]

It should be obvious, by the way, that if the predictions you have me make pertain to black boxes that you construct then I would only bet if the odds gave a money pump.

Phooey. There goes plan A.

Comment author: wedrifid 27 July 2009 03:56:39PM 0 points [-]

;)

Comment author: Cyan 27 July 2009 04:11:02PM 0 points [-]

Plan B involves trying to use some nasty posterior inconsistency results, so don't think you're out of the woods yet.

Comment author: wedrifid 27 July 2009 04:40:58PM *  0 points [-]

I am convinced in full generality that being offered the option of a bet can only provide utility >= 0. So if the punch line is 'insuficiently constrained rationality' then yes, the joke is on me!

And yes, I suspect trying to get my head around that paper would (will) be rather costly! I'm a goddam programmer. :P