cousin_it comments on Bayesian Flame - Less Wrong

37 Post author: cousin_it 26 July 2009 04:49PM

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Comment author: cousin_it 27 July 2009 03:52:58PM *  0 points [-]

Well, the first example is a model with a single parameter. Roughly speaking, the Bayesian initially believes that the true model is either a Gaussian around 1, or a Gaussian around -1. The actual distribution is a mix of those two, so the Bayesian has no chance of ever arriving at the truth (the prior for the truth is zero), instead becoming over time more and more comically overconfident in one of the initial preposterous beliefs.