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wedrifid comments on Bayesian Flame - Less Wrong
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Thanks Cyan.
I'll get back to you when (and if) I've had time to get my head around Neyman's confidence belt construction, with which I've never had cause to acquaint myself.
This paper has a good explanation. Note that I've left one of the steps (the "ordering" that determines inclusion into the confidence belt) undetermined. I'll tell you the ordering I have in mind if you get to the point of wanting to ask me.
That's a lot of integration to get my head around.
All you need is page 3 (especially the figure). If you understand that in depth, then I can tell you what the confidence belt for my problem above looks like. Then I can give you a simulation algorithm and you can play around and see exactly how confidence intervals work and what they can give you.