Nornagest comments on Thomas C. Schelling's "Strategy of Conflict" - Less Wrong

81 Post author: cousin_it 28 July 2009 04:08PM

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Comment author: khafra 26 October 2012 07:50:10PM 1 point [-]

I think that, if we stay out of the least convenient possible world, this is impractical because of the uncertainty of intel. In a world where there was genuine uncertainty whether Saddam Hussein was building WMD, it seems like it would be difficult to gain enough certainty to launch against another country in peacetime. At least, until that other country announced "we have 20 experimental nuclear missiles targeted at major US cities, and we're going to go ahead with our first full-scale test of a nuclear warhead. Your move."

Today, we see this problem with attribution for computer network exploitation from (presumably) state actors. It's a reasonably good parallel to MAD, because we have offensive ability, but little defensive ability. In this environment, we haven't really seen computer network attacks used to control the development of intrusion/exploitation capabilities by state or even private actors (at least, as far as I know of).

Comment author: Nornagest 26 October 2012 09:05:42PM *  3 points [-]

ICBMs didn't exist at the time -- intercontinental capability didn't arrive until the Soviet R-7 missile in 1957, eight years after the first successful Russian nuclear test, and no missiles were tested with nuclear warheads until 1958 -- making the strategic picture dependent at least as much on air superiority as on the state of nuclear tech. Between geography and military focus, that would probably have given the United States a significant advantage if they'd chosen to pursue this avenue in the mid-to-late 1940s. On the other hand, intelligence services were pretty crude in some ways, too; my understanding is that the Russian atomic program was unknown to the American spook establishment until it was nearing completion.