The entire civilised world (which at this point does not include anyone who is still a member of the US government) is in uproar. Your attempts at secret diplomacy are leaked immediately. The people of the UK make tea in your general direction. Protesters march on the White House.
When do you push the button, and how will you keep order in your own country afterwards?
What I'm really getting at here is that your bland willingness to murder millions of non-combatants of a friendly power in peacetime because they do not accede to your empire-building unfits you for inclusion in the human race.
Also, that it's easy to win these games in your imagination. You just have to think, I will do this, and then my opponent must rationally do that. You have a completely watertight argument. Then your opponent goes and does something else. It does not matter that you followed the rules of the logical system if the system itself is inconsistent.
You just have to think, I will do this, and then my opponent must rationally do that. You have a completely watertight argument. Then your opponent goes and does something else.
A model of reality, which assumes that an opponent must be rational, is an incorrect model. At best, it is a good approximation that could luckily return a correct answer in some situations.
I think this is a frequent bias for smart people -- assuming that (1) my reasoning is flawless, and (2) my opponent is on the same rationality level as me, therefore (3) my opponent must have ...
It's an old book, I know, and one that many of us have already read. But if you haven't, you should.
If there's anything in the world that deserves to be called a martial art of rationality, this book is the closest approximation yet. Forget rationalist Judo: this is rationalist eye-gouging, rationalist gang warfare, rationalist nuclear deterrence. Techniques that let you win, but you don't want to look in the mirror afterward.
Imagine you and I have been separately parachuted into an unknown mountainous area. We both have maps and radios, and we know our own positions, but don't know each other's positions. The task is to rendezvous. Normally we'd coordinate by radio and pick a suitable meeting point, but this time you got lucky. So lucky in fact that I want to strangle you: upon landing you discovered that your radio is broken. It can transmit but not receive.
Two days of rock-climbing and stream-crossing later, tired and dirty, I arrive at the hill where you've been sitting all this time smugly enjoying your lack of information.
And after we split the prize and cash our checks I learn that you broke the radio on purpose.
Schelling's book walks you through numerous conflict situations where an unintuitive and often self-limiting move helps you win, slowly building up to the topic of nuclear deterrence between the US and the Soviets. And it's not idle speculation either: the author worked at the White House at the dawn of the Cold War and his theories eventually found wide military application in deterrence and arms control. Here's a selection of quotes to give you a flavor: the whole book is like this, except interspersed with game theory math.
I sometimes think of game theory as being roughly divided in three parts, like Gaul. There's competitive zero-sum game theory, there's cooperative game theory, and there are games where players compete but also have some shared interest. Except this third part isn't a middle ground. It's actually better thought of as ultra-competitive game theory. Zero-sum settings are relatively harmless: you minimax and that's it. It's the variable-sum games that make you nuke your neighbour.
Sometime ago in my wild and reckless youth that hopefully isn't over yet, a certain ex-girlfriend took to harassing me with suicide threats. (So making her stay alive was presumably our common interest in this variable-sum game.) As soon as I got around to looking at the situation through Schelling goggles, it became clear that ignoring the threats just leads to escalation. The correct solution was making myself unavailable for threats. Blacklist the phone number, block the email, spend a lot of time out of home. If any messages get through, pretend I didn't receive them anyway. It worked. It felt kinda bad, but it worked.