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RichardKennaway comments on Thomas C. Schelling's "Strategy of Conflict" - Less Wrong
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I'm not sure everything would have happened as you describe, and thus not sure I prefer the alternative that actually happened. But your questions make me curious: do you also think the US was game-theoretically right to attack Iraq and will be right to attack Iran because those countries didn't do "whatever was necessary" to convince you they aren't developing WMDs?
My understanding is that the Iraq invasion was done mainly to test the "spread democracy" strategy, which the Bush administration believed in, and WMDs were more or less an excuse. Since that didn't work out so well, there seems to be little chance that Iran will be attacked in a similar way.
Game theoretically, physically invading a country to stop WMDs is much too costly, and not a credible threat, especially since lots of countries have already developed WMDs without being invaded.