eirenicon comments on Thomas C. Schelling's "Strategy of Conflict" - Less Wrong

81 Post author: cousin_it 28 July 2009 04:08PM

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Comment author: Wei_Dai 29 July 2009 12:32:41PM *  12 points [-]

Shelling was actually the less ruthless of the pioneers of game theory. The other pioneer was Von Neumann who advocated a unilateral nuclear attack on the USSR before they developed their own nuclear weapons.

One thing I don't understand, why didn't the US announce at the end of World War II that it will nuke any country that attempts to develop a nuclear weapon or conducts a nuclear bomb test? If it had done that, then there would have been no need to actually nuke anyone. Was game theory invented too late?

Comment author: eirenicon 29 July 2009 03:04:06PM *  7 points [-]

At the end of WWII, the US's nuclear arsenal was still small and limited. The declaration of such a threat would have made it worth the risk for the USSR to dramatically ramp up their nuclear weapons research, which had been ongoing since 1942. The Soviets tested their first nuke in 1949; at that point or any time earlier, it would have been too late for the US to follow through. They would've had to drop the Marshall Plan and risk starting another "hot war". With their European allies, especially the UK, still struggling economically, the outcome would have been far from assured.

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