eirenicon comments on Thomas C. Schelling's "Strategy of Conflict" - Less Wrong

81 Post author: cousin_it 28 July 2009 04:08PM

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Comment author: Wei_Dai 30 July 2009 07:58:10PM 3 points [-]

I think there is an equilibrium where the US promises not to use the threat of nukes for anything other than enforcing the no-nuclear-development policy and for obvious cases of self-defense, and it keeps this promise because to not do so would be to force other countries to start developing nukes.

Also, I note that many countries do not have nukes today nor enjoy protection by a nuclear power, and the US does not use the threat of nuclear war against them in every scenario.

Comment author: eirenicon 30 July 2009 08:17:54PM *  10 points [-]

I think that proposed equilibrium would have been extremely unlikely under circumstances where the US (a) had abandoned their pre-war isolationist policies and (b) were about to embark on a mission of bending other nations, often through military force, to their will. Nukes had just been used to end a war with Japan. Why wouldn't the US use them to end the Korean war, for example? Or even to pre-empt it? Or to pre-empt any other conflict it had an interest in? The US acted incredibly aggressively when a single misstep could have sent Soviet missiles in their direction. How aggressive might it have been if there was no such danger? I think you underestimate how much of a show stopper nuclear weapons were in the 40s and 50s. There was no international terrorism or domestic activism that could exact punitive measures on those who threatened to use or used nukes.

Even though the cold war is long over, I am still disturbed by how many nuclear weapons there are in the world. Even so, I would much rather live in this climate than one in which only a single nation - a nation with a long history of interfering with other sovereign countries, a nation that is currently engaged in two wars of aggression - was the only nuclear power around.