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Wei_Dai comments on The Hero With A Thousand Chances - Less Wrong

63 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 31 July 2009 04:25AM

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Comment author: Wei_Dai 12 May 2010 01:29:13PM 2 points [-]

No, because our world hasn't had as many "lucky coincidences" as Aerhien's. It seems to me that we are not seeing more "lucky coincidences" than a typical evolved intelligent species would see, looking back on the history of its world.

Comment author: FeepingCreature 23 July 2013 06:38:39AM 0 points [-]

I think the most we can say is that there hasn't been a disaster in our history that would have required great luck to stop. Our world has nothing like the dust; our destruction is not nearly that intrinsically assured. So whatever coincidence saved us, anthropomorphically, would not look like an Act of Great Luck; it would look like the sort of thing that you could convince yourself in retrospect must have been more probable than it seemed at the time. Long, drawn-out sequences of individually credible chances.