Less Wrong is a community blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality. Please visit our About page for more information.

rwallace comments on The Hero With A Thousand Chances - Less Wrong

63 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 31 July 2009 04:25AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (159)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: rwallace 31 July 2009 06:38:48AM 1 point [-]

And yes, "a lot of lucky heroes" is what I'm thinking - suppose there have been a thousand wins at 50-50 odds, that's about 300 decimal orders of magnitude, which makes it almost certain that the counterforce really does exist. If the number were less, that makes the anthropic explanation more likely. That's why I would check on the numbers before drawing the anthropic conclusion.