I'm curious if Eliezer (or anyone else) has anything more to say about where the Born Probabilities come from. In that post, Eliezer wrote:

But what does the integral over squared moduli have to do with anything? On a straight reading of the data, you would always find yourself in both blobs, every time. How can you find yourself in one blob with greater probability? What are the Born probabilities, probabilities of? [...] I don't know. It's an open problem. Try not to go funny in the head about it.

Fair enough. But around the same time, Eliezer suggested Drescher's book Good and Real, which I've been belatedly making my way through.

And then, on pages 150-151, I see that Drescher actually attempts to explain (derive?) the Born probabilities. He also says that we can "reach the same conclusion [...] by appeal to decision theory," and references Deutsch 1999 ("Quantum Theory of Probability and Decisions") and Wallace 2003 ("Quantum Probability and Decision Theory, Revisited").

My problem: I still don't get it. I loved Eliezer's commonsense explanation of QM and MWI. I'm looking for something at the same level, just as intuitive, for the Born probabilities.

Anyone willing and able to take on that challenge?