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joeteicher comments on Why You're Stuck in a Narrative - Less Wrong

38 [deleted] 04 August 2009 12:31AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 04 August 2009 07:46:44PM 4 points [-]

I had a co-worker who took Taleb way too seriously. Any time I used the word "because" in the context of market moves, he would condemn me with the phrase "narrative fallacy." Here is a sample dialogue:

him: "how's it going?" me: "the S&Ps are really whipping around because the fed just did a surprise cut." him: "narrative fallacy!!"

He just didn't really get that even though there are a ton of invalid narratives in the financial markets (just turn on CNBC and you hear them non-stop) that doesn't mean that there aren't valid narratives sometimes also.