HughRistik comments on The usefulness of correlations - Less Wrong
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That's what I took the point to be. The initial descriptions of what Simplicio and Salviati accomplished make them sound comparable. It wouldn't occur to most that one was overwhelmingly superior to the other. But working it out shows otherwise.
It's true that a lot is buried in the line "Salviati instead tries to measure X, and finds a variable Z which is experimentally found to have a good chance of lying close to X." What was required to establish this "experimental finding"? It might have taken labors far in excess of Simplicio's. But now we know that, unless Salviati had to do much, much more work, his approach is to be preferred.
Correlation, maybe?