Comment on Formalization is a rationality technique

Sat, 07 Mar 2009 00:37:26 GMT

Let's say I am arguing that the sky is blue because the aliens have landed and that's the color they painted it. The probability of the aliens having landed is very low, and the probability of the aliens painting the sky blue given that they've landed is also fairly low, but the probability of the sky being blue is quite high.

In other words, incorrect arguments in favor of a proposition don't make the proposition less likely.

Discuss