Comment on Guess Again

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 19:18:10 GMT

I wonder if the definition of "surprise" isn't a problem here - we may need two distinct words. The amount of information added to your knowledge of the universe is large when a low-probability event is observed. This is "surprising" in the sense of number of bits it takes to encode.

It's not "surprising" in the human emotional sense, because you've already aggregated a number of probabilities, and this is a common result.

Likewise, Omega drawing a cerulean bead is informative, but not surprising. Drawing the Battleship Potemkin is surprising, because you've (incorrectly) assigned it a zero probability.

Discuss