Vladimir_Golovin comments on Misleading the witness - Less Wrong

14 Post author: Bo102010 09 August 2009 08:13PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Golovin 10 August 2009 05:54:00AM 21 points [-]

I can't think of a good explanation for anyone picking the $500

Say, you're starving and if you don't get a meal today, you'll die. In such situations, the choice between 15% chance of $1 million and a sure $500 boils down to a choice between 15% chance to survive today and a 100% chance to survive today (assuming that the meal costs less than $500.)

Perhaps the people who chose $500 operate in this 'starvation mode' by default.

Comment author: randallsquared 11 August 2009 03:07:56AM 3 points [-]

The general term for "people who operate in starvation mode" is "the poor".

Comment author: ShardPhoenix 15 August 2009 04:17:54PM *  0 points [-]

I doubt this is the case for most of the people who would take the $500 - I'd assume it's more that most of them couldn't or just didn't think to calculate the expectation value of a 15% chance at a million.

Comment author: Alicorn 15 August 2009 05:41:50PM 3 points [-]

I think people are flipping the offer in their minds and comparing a sure $500 to an 85% chance of zilch.