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PhilGoetz comments on Misleading the witness - Less Wrong
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What $10,000?
EDIT: Never mind; I thought he said "the $10,000".
You could probably sell somebody a 15% chance to win a million bucks for 10k. It's worth fifteen times that to a risk-neutral agent.
I'm pretty confident that you could sell a true 15% chance to win a million bucks for a lot more than 10k... after all, investment banks make substantially greater gambles regularly.
I'd probably ask for 100k to start and go from there.