timtyler comments on Misleading the witness - Less Wrong

14 Post author: Bo102010 09 August 2009 08:13PM

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Comment author: PhilGoetz 10 August 2009 02:51:59AM *  5 points [-]

Re. the linked article about the cognitive confusion test:

80 percent of high-scoring men would pick a 15 percent chance of $1 million over a sure $500, compared with only 38 percent of high-scoring women, 40 percent of low-scoring men and 25 percent of low-scoring women.

Wow. That's the most mind-blowing thing I've read in a while. I can't think of a good explanation for anyone picking the $500, let alone the male-female difference. Maybe they assume that someone might actually give them $500, but the $1M is a scam. And how does this square with the idea that poor people play the lottery more?

Princeton students scored a mean of 1.63. Heh.

Comment author: timtyler 10 August 2009 06:01:44PM -1 points [-]

Re: Maybe they assume that someone might actually give them $500, but the $1M is a scam.

If you were offering this deal, wouldn't the $1M be based on a deceptive maniuputation of the stated probabilities? Many participants can probably figure that one out.

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