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orthonormal comments on Misleading the witness - Less Wrong
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Just because someone tells you that something has a 15% chance does not make it so. If someone offers you a 15% chance at $1M for anything less than $150k, then you should be 95% confident that they will try to cheat somehow.
We've had this argument before, and it still looks to me like this couldn't account for the full effect of risk aversion. The fact that scammers regularly succeed means that people don't usually base their reasoning on that sort of suspicion.
People who feel secure do not, and people who do not feel secure do. Unfortunately, to someone in the latter camp, genuine opportunity really looks like a scam; it's "too good to be true".