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Alicorn comments on Misleading the witness - Less Wrong
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Show of hands - who really has $100,000 that they could free up to buy this from thomblake? Personally, I don't think I actually know what 100k is worth to me because I have never had my hands on that much money.
Actually, if he has the $1M, I'm in. I don't have $100K liquid in any normal sense but I could certainly raise it for such a deal and divide the risk and return up among a few people.
He does not have (even in this hypothetical situation) a million bucks. Hypothetically, he's being offered a 15% chance of winning a million bucks.
Incidentally, in a staggering display of risk aversion, I asked a friend how much she'd pay for a 15% chance of a million dollars and she said maybe twenty bucks because those did not seem like "very good odds" to her. -.-
I don't have $100,000. I only have about $30,000.
Just how much is a one in seven chance of a million dollars worth to everyone here, anyway? (Offer me a near certainty of $70,000 and I'd start to have second thoughts about taking the gamble.)