barrkel comments on Misleading the witness - Less Wrong

14 Post author: Bo102010 09 August 2009 08:13PM

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Comment author: thomblake 10 August 2009 10:26:39PM 3 points [-]

I can't think of a good explanation for anyone picking the $500

I agree with Vladimir Golovin. I definitely think this way - I can think immediately of how useful $500 would be to me, but cannot think of many ways to use a 15% chance of $1M.

Well, I can think of one way - I would take the 15% chance of $1M and then sell it to one of you suckers for $100,000.

Comment author: barrkel 11 August 2009 05:30:12AM 1 point [-]

Exactly. If someone has $1.1M, spending $0.1M on a 15% chance of $1M is a good deal. Someone who has $0.05M and has to go into debt to buy the 15% chance is very probably insane.