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orangecat comments on Misleading the witness - Less Wrong
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Okay, I tested this on a couple of uninvolved bystanders and yes, they would take the $500 over the 15% chance of $1m. Guess it's true. Staggers the mind.
I tried it on two women at work and they both went for the million, one with no hesitation and the other after maybe 10 seconds. Although they both have some background in finance and are probably 1 to 2 standard deviations above average IQ.
That's not very surprising. You could see if they passed all three questions on the reflection test.
My fiance (who has a more advanced degree than I) thought I was trying to trick her and made me restate the problem several times.