Christian_Szegedy comments on Misleading the witness - Less Wrong

14 Post author: Bo102010 09 August 2009 08:13PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 25 August 2009 02:54:38AM 2 points [-]

This kind of super-cautious mindset can't be modeled with any real valued money X (current state of the world) -> utility type of mapping.

If you would trade a .99999 probability of $100M for a .99997 probability of $100B, then you're correct - you have no consistent utility function, and hence you can be money-pumped by the Allais Paradox.

Comment author: Christian_Szegedy 25 August 2009 03:42:50AM *  1 point [-]

The above example had no consistent (real valued) utility function regardless off my 100M@.99999 vs. 100B@.99997 preference.

BTW, whatever would that preference be (I am a bit unsure, but I think I'd still take the 100M as not doing so would triple my chances of losing it) I did not really get the conclusion of the essay. At least I could not follow why being money-pumped (according to that definition of "money pumped") is so undesirable from any rational point of view.