First, they recognize that the huge amount of raw visual data can be concisely, losslessly compressed into a few variables. In other words, even given all the parts of the visual field that move, they have recognized how many of those degrees of freedom are constrained, and so don't need to be included in a varaible list that fully describes what's going on.
I said:
"Note that the data available to the system is the actual position and velocity measurements of the objects, rather than a video from a video camera, which would provide strictly more information, but be harder to process."
Second, they picked a system with heavy components and a short enough duration that you don't have to worry about energy loss due to aerodynamic drag. Such terms were not in the equations the machine discovered, which would have really put a crimp on its ability to find conservation laws.
just introduce a term into the Hamiltonian for energy in the temperature and velocity of the air. Air resistance would make the problem harder, but I hereby predict that the Cornell team would be able to get their machine to work with significant air resistance. Will you email them this as a challenge?
Also, what do you say about the Cambridge/Aberystwith group?
This is impressive work, but, well, let's not get ahead of ourselves.
the point is not that a narrow AI like Adam or the Cornell machine would deduce GR from the statics of a blade of grass. The point is that if Adam or the Cornell machine can do simple stuff orders of magnitude better than humans can, then my estimate of the probability that a "Superintelligence" would be able to do hard stuff like coming up with GR as a hypothesis and noticing that it is consistent with the motion of an apple in less than a second should go up.
"Note that the data available to the system is the actual position and velocity measurements of the objects, rather than a video from a video camera, which would provide strictly more information, but be harder to process."
Yes, I was pointing out the significance of this pre-processing, not trying to imply you didn't mention it. "Would be harder to process" means they did most of the hard part before turning it over to the machine.
...just introduce a term into the Hamiltonian for energy in the temperature and velocity of the air. Air
In That alien message, Eliezer made some pretty wild claims:
In the comments, Will Pearson asked for "some form of proof of concept". It seems that researchers at Cornell - Schmidt and Lipson - have done exactly that. See their video on Guardian Science:
Researchers at Cambridge and Aberystwith have gone one step further and implemented an AI system/robot to perform scientific experiments:
The crucial question is: what can we learn about the likely effectiveness of a "superintelligent" AI from the behavior of these AI programs? First of all, let us be clear: this AI is *not* a "superintellgience", so we shouldn't expect it to perform at that level. The problem we face is analogous to the problem of extrapolating how fast an olympic sprinter can run from looking at a baby crawling around on the floor. Furthermore, the Cornell machine was given a physical system that was specifically chosen to be easy to analyze, and a representation (equations) that is known to be suited to the problem.
We can certainly state that the program analyzed some data much faster than any human could have done. In a running time probably measured in hours or minutes, it took a huge stream of raw position and velocity data and found the underlying conserved quantities. And given likely algorithmic optimizations and another 10 years' of Moore's law, we can safely say that in 10 years' time, that particular program will run in seconds on a $500 machine or milliseconds on a supercomputer. These results actually surprise me: an AI can automatically and instantly analyze a physical system (albeit a rigged one).
But, of course, one has to ask: how much more narrow-AI work would it take to actually look at video of some bouncing, falling and whirling objects and deduce a general physical law such as the earth's gravity and the laws governing air resistance, where the objects are not hand-picked to be easy to analyze? This is unclear. But I can see mechanisms whereby this would work, rather than merely having to submit to the overwhelming power of the word "superintelligence". My suspicion is that with current state-of-the-art object identification technology, video footage of a system of bouncing balls and pendulums and springs would be amenable to this kind of analysis. There may even be a research project in that proposition.
As far as extrapolating the behavior of a superintelligence from the behavior of the Cornell AI or the Adam robot, we should note that no human can look at a complex physical system for a few seconds and just write down the physical law or equation that it obeys. A simple narrow AI has already outperformed humans at one specific task; though it still cannot do most of what a scientist does. We should therefore update our beliefs to assign more weight to the hypothesis that on some particular narrow physical modelling task, a "superintelligence" would vastly outperform us. Personally I was surprised at what such a simple system can do, though with hindsight it is obvious: data from a physical system follows patterns, and statistics can indentify those patterns. Science is not a magic ritual that only humans can perform, rather it is a specific kind of algorithm, and we should expect there to be no special injunction against silicon minds from doing it.