Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Aaronson - Percontations: Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Mechanics
Sections of the diavlog:
- When will we build the first superintelligence?
- Why quantum computing isn’t a recipe for robot apocalypse
- How to guilt-trip a machine
- The evolutionary psychology of artificial intelligence
- Eliezer contends many-worlds is obviously correct
- Scott contends many-worlds is ridiculous (but might still be true)
Dennett and Hofstadter have "extremely large" estimates of the time to intelligent machines as well. I expect such estimates will prove to be wrong - but it is true that we don't know much about the size of the target in the search space - or how rough that space is - so almost any estimate is defensible.