Doesn't evidential decision theory get the right answer in that problem, and causal the wrong one? in which case it's the opposite of the smoking lesion problem.

Creating a counterfactual similar to a situation we're familiar with helps us form intuitions about it more easily.

Why use a counterfactual example at all? Surely there's no need to have an example that contains falsehoods - it just creates unnecessary problems.

My reaction was more along the lines of: this author just tried to subliminally slip me some potentially damaging health advice! I had better watch out for other lies they might want to subliminally feed me for their own nefarious ends!