Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Ingredients of Timeless Decision Theory - Less Wrong
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I'm trying to understand the difference between this formulation and mine. Interestingly, Eliezer seems to have specified a "causal" timeless decision theory, whereas mine could be described as an "evidential" TDT. In my formulation, you'd compute the expected utility of a strategy (i.e., mapping of inputs to outputs) T by taking "S is logically equivalent to T" as a (provisional) axiom, then recomputing logical uncertainties and expected utility.
The "evidential" approach seems simpler. What advantage does the "causal" approach have? Sorry if this is obvious, but my knowledge of Pearl is very limited.
Parfit's Hitchhiker; in the future, after having observed that you've already been picked up and made it to safety, you'll still compute the counterfactual "If the output of my computation were to refuse to pay, then I would not have been picked up."
Since TDT screens off all info that goes into your decision-setup, using your updateless version of TDT might obliterate the difference between evidential and causal approaches entirely - no counterfactuals, no updates, just ruling out of self-copies that have received incompatible sense data. (Not sure yet if this works.)