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RickJS comments on Ingredients of Timeless Decision Theory - Less Wrong
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In Eliezer's article on Newcomb's problem, he says, "Omega has been correct on each of 100 observed occasions so far - everyone who took both boxes has found box B empty and received only a thousand dollars; everyone who took only box B has found B containing a million dollars. " Such evidence from previous players fails to appear in some problem descriptions, including Wikipedia's.
For me this is a "no-brainer". Take box B, deposit it, and come back for more. That's what the physical evidence says. Any philosopher who says "Taking BOTH boxes is the rational action," occurs to me as an absolute fool in the face of the evidence. (But I've never understood non-mathematical philosophy anyway, so I may a poor judge.)
Clarifying (NOT rhetorical) questions:
Have I just cheated, so that "it's not the Newcomb Problem anymore?"
When you fellows say a certain decision theory "two-boxes", are those theory-calculations including the previous play evidence or not?
Thanks for your time and attention.
There is no opportunity to come back for more. Assume that when you take box B before taking box A, box A is removed.
Yes, I read about " ... disappears in a puff of smoke." I wasn't coming back for a measly $1K, I was coming back for another million! I'll see if they'll let me play again. Omega already KNOWS I'm greedy, this won't come as a shock. He'll probably have told his team what to say when I try it.
" ... and come back for more." was meant to be funny.
Anyway, this still doesn't answer my questions about "Omega has been correct on each of 100 observed occasions so far - everyone who took both boxes has found box B empty and received only a thousand dollars; everyone who took only box B has found B containing a million dollars."
Someone please answer my questions! Thanks!
The problem needs lots of little hypotheses about Omega. In general, you can create these hypotheses for yourself, using the principle of "Least Convenient Possible World"
http://lesswrong.com/lw/2k/the_least_convenient_possible_world/
Or, from philosophy/argumentation theory, "Principle of Charity".
http://philosophy.lander.edu/intro/charity.shtml
In your case, I think you need to add at least two helper assumptions - Omega's prediction abilities are trustworthy, and Omega's offer will never be repeated - not for you, not for anyone.
What the physical evidence says is that the boxes are there, the money is there, and Omega is gone. So what does your choice effect and when?
Well, I mulled that over for a while, and I can't see any way that contributes to answering my questions.
As to " ... what does your choice effect and when?", I suppose there are common causes starting before Omega loaded the boxes, that affect both Omega's choices and mine. For example, the machinery of my brain. No backwards-in-time is required.