Peter_de_Blanc comments on You have just been Counterfactually Mugged! - Less Wrong

4 Post author: CronoDAS 19 August 2009 10:24PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 19 August 2009 11:08:16PM 11 points [-]

I will if Michael Vassar judges that any reputational damage from the comment has an expected value less than $14.

You did it wrong on two counts: First, you need to ask me to pay you money, so the two utilities are easily commensurable and there's no question of interpreting the results. Second, repeating the Counterfactual Mugging more than once tends to obscure the point, especially given the implication that you had a stopping algorithm rather than a fixed number of iterations. Of course it is now too late to do it over again correctly.

But with a trusted witness of the original die roll, or say paying $20 if the 100th decimal digit of pi (unknown to me currently) is 0, and otherwise demanding $1, we could totally mug, say, Derek Parfit and see what happens. Actually, I think I'll forward this suggestion to Anders Sandberg and see what happens if he mugs Nick Bostrom. No one tell Bostrom before then, please.

Comment author: Peter_de_Blanc 20 August 2009 01:00:58AM 4 points [-]

I will if Michael Vassar judges that any reputational damage from the comment has an expected value less than $14.

Don't you mean $10?

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 August 2009 05:40:35AM *  -1 points [-]

2/3 of $20? Should be "less than $13", actually.

Comment author: Peter_de_Blanc 20 August 2009 11:48:05AM *  10 points [-]

Before the die roll, there's a 1/3 chance that you'll get the reward ($20), and a 2/3 chance that you'll be asked to pay the penalty. For the expected utility to be 0, (2/3)*|penalty| = (1/3)*$20. Multiply both sides by 3, and 2*|penalty| = $20, so |penalty| = $10.

Comment author: Benquo 20 August 2009 08:29:40PM 11 points [-]

How's that for minor reputational damage?

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 August 2009 09:58:50PM *  24 points [-]

Crap. Never mind. You know, this happens when I'm sufficiently tired, and it's scary. I am a poopy head.

Comment author: CronoDAS 20 August 2009 10:23:24PM 3 points [-]

I am a poopy head.

I'll take that as a successful mugging. ;)