I'm going to test just how much the people here are committed to paying a Counterfactual Mugger, by playing Omega.
I'm going to roll a die. If it doesn't come up 5 or 6, I'm going to ask Eliezer Yudkowsky to reply to this article with the comment "I am a poopy head." If I roll a 5 or 6, I'm going to donate $20 to SIAI if I predict that Eliezer Yudkowsky will post the above comment.
Because Eliezer has indicated that he would pay up when counterfactually mugged, I do predict that, if I roll a 5 or 6, he'll respond.
::rolls die::
Darn it! It's a 5. Well, I'm a man of my word, so...
::donates::
Um, let's try that again. (At least I've proven my honesty!)
::rolls die::
Okay, this time it's a 1.
So, Eliezer, will you post a comment admitting that you're a poopy head?
Before the die roll, there's a 1/3 chance that you'll get the reward ($20), and a 2/3 chance that you'll be asked to pay the penalty. For the expected utility to be 0, (2/3)*|penalty| = (1/3)*$20. Multiply both sides by 3, and 2*|penalty| = $20, so |penalty| = $10.
I'm going to test just how much the people here are committed to paying a Counterfactual Mugger, by playing Omega.
I'm going to roll a die. If it doesn't come up 5 or 6, I'm going to ask Eliezer Yudkowsky to reply to this article with the comment "I am a poopy head." If I roll a 5 or 6, I'm going to donate $20 to SIAI if I predict that Eliezer Yudkowsky will post the above comment.
Because Eliezer has indicated that he would pay up when counterfactually mugged, I do predict that, if I roll a 5 or 6, he'll respond.
::rolls die::
Darn it! It's a 5. Well, I'm a man of my word, so...
::donates::
Um, let's try that again. (At least I've proven my honesty!)
::rolls die::
Okay, this time it's a 1.
So, Eliezer, will you post a comment admitting that you're a poopy head?