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DonGeddis comments on How inevitable was modern human civilization - data - Less Wrong
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Re: abiogenesis. You say:
For a plausible mechanism, see this video. (It starts with anti-creationism stuff; skip to 2:45 to watch the science.)
There are plenty of ideas how some part of emergence of life might have happened. The problems is that each idea explains just small part of it, they are not all compatible with each other, and many have serious problems. Yes, life emerged, so it must have emerged somehow, but I haven't seen any mechanism that seemed to make it likely.