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PhilGoetz comments on Mathematical simplicity bias and exponential functions - Less Wrong
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I used radioactivity example because it was painfully (as in smacked in the face by truth) clear what the correct answer is. But people do use stupid models like simple exponential growth for things like population and economic growth all the time.
Like certain singulatarian futurists.
So someone has mentioned it on LW after all. Lots of singulatarian ideas depend heavily exponential growth.