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whpearson comments on Mathematical simplicity bias and exponential functions - Less Wrong
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It can't be bettered on average, assuming that the thing you are modelling is computable.
But I haven't seen any proof to say that any other strategy will do worse on average. Anyone got any links?
See Hutter, Legg.
If I understand the maths right the important part of http://www.hutter1.net/ai/paixi.ps for using kolmogorov complexity is the part of section 2 that says
"The SPΘμ system is best in the sense that EnΘμ ≤ Enρ for any ρ."
That doesn't guarantee that this EnΘμ = Enρ for large numbers of different ρ. isn't true which would invalidate any claims of it being the one right way of doing things.
I was interested in links to papers with that theorem disproved.