That's not necessary for the parallel to work. In my post, the insurer is stating how things look from your side of the deal, in a way that shows the mapping to the counterfactual mugger. (And by the way, if insurers predict your house will burn down they don't offer you a policy -- not one as cheap as $1000. If they sell you one at all, they sell at a price equal to the payout, in which case it's just shuffling money around.)

What creates a mapping to Newcomb's problem (and by transition, the counterfactual mugging) is the inability to selectively set a policy so that it only applies at just the right time to benefit you. With a perfect predictor (Omega), you can't "have a policy of one-boxing" yet conceal your intent to actually two-box.

This same dilemma arises in insurance, without having to assume a perfect, near-acausal predictor: you can't "decide against buying insurance" and then make an exception over the time period where the disaster occurs. All that's necessary for you to be in that situation is that you can't predict the disaster significantly better than the insurer (assuming away for now the problems of insurance fraud and liability insurance, which introduce other considerations).