= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
tut comments on Don't be Pathologically Mugged! - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (30)
That is the context that I read it in. He pointed out that counterfactual mugging is equivalent to insurance only if you fail to update on the information about which way the coin fell before deciding (not) to play. You responded that this made no difference because you didn't regret buying insurance a year later (when you have the information but don't get to reverse the purchase).
I guess I should have asked for clarification on what he meant by the "improbable conclusion" that the counterfactual mugging suggests. I thought he meant that the possibility of being counterfactually mugged implies the conclusion that you should pre-commit to paying the mugger, and not change your action based upon finding that you were on the losing side.
If that's not the case, we're starting from different premises.
In any case, I think the salient aspect is the same between the two cases: it is optimal to precommit to paying, even if it seems like being able to change course later would make you better off.