SforSingularity comments on Optimal Strategies for Reducing Existential Risk - Less Wrong

3 Post author: FrankAdamek 31 August 2009 03:52PM

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Comment author: SforSingularity 01 September 2009 01:52:47PM *  1 point [-]

I think that there may be clever ways that a co-operating group of risk-reducers can "game" the current socio-economic system.

Specifically, we should be much more risk-tolerant in our acquisition of money than the average person with our abilities. A career in a large firm such as a law firm is certainly good, but why not take an option such as entrepreneurship that has a long tail of increasingly high returns? If a sizeable group (say, 30 people) of co-operating risk-reducers all take high-risk, high-reward paths, they can produce a greater expected return than if they pursued the usual cautious, steady job routes.

In cases where existential risk is mitigated in a way that also allows the risk-mitigators to survive - for example because an FAI is built within their lifetimes, or they are successfully cryopreserved and then reanimated, they can arrange for the post-risk society to reward those who took risk-mitigation action such that, taking into account the discount rates of the mitigators, the risk mitigating action was on balance a positive contribution to the future discounted reward of each individual mitigator from the point of view of the mitigator today. This could be construed as akin to a financial instrument.

Comment author: SforSingularity 01 September 2009 02:25:05PM 0 points [-]

I see that utilitarian has already made this point:

Summary. In many cases, the good accomplished by money is approximately proportional to the amount donated, so that traditional arguments for being risk averse with respect to wealth don't apply. In such circumstances, utilitarians should take advantage of economic risk premia, such as those that accrue to riskier stocks. (For instance, in the context of the Capital Asset Pricing Model, "riskier" means "higher beta," i.e., higher scaled covariance with market returns.)