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SforSingularity comments on Optimal Strategies for Reducing Existential Risk - Less Wrong
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Off hand I'd think it "very small", as it requires both a future in which people (or their continuations) are around, and that significant power is held by a group (however large) who thinks we should reward and punish people as such, and/or have successfully precommitted to do so.
How about the consideration that, out of all good futures that suffer from a tragedy-of-the-commons type problem, those that implement reward/punishment precommitments are more likely to overcome the free rider problem and actually work? Does this not push the probability up somewhat?