Good question. And with Charlie known to be operating exactly as defined then yes, I would one box. I wouldn't call him Charlie however as that leads to confusion. The significant problem with dealing with someone who is taking the role of Omega is in my ability to form a prediction about them that is sufficient to justify the 'cooperate' response. Once I have that prediction the rest, as you have shown, is just simple math.
I don’t think Newcomb’s Problem can easily be stated as a real (as opposed to a simply logical) problem. Any instance of Newcomb’s problem that you can feasibly construct in the real world it is not a strict one shot problem. I would suggest that optimizing a rational agent for the strictly logical one shot problem one is optimizing for a reality that we don’t exist in.
Even if I am wrong about Newcomb’s problem effectively being an iterated type of problem treating it as if it is seems to solve the dilemma.
Consider this line of reasoning. Omega wants to ma...
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