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jimmy comments on Decision theory: Why Pearl helps reduce “could” and “would”, but still leaves us with at least three alternatives - Less Wrong
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Comments (70)
I see your point, which is why I made sure to write "In addition, all people with working brains have chosen two boxes in the past."
My point is that you can have situations where there is a strong correlation so that Omega nearly always predicts correctly, but that Omega's prediction isn't caused by the output of the algorithm you use to compute your decisions, so you should two box.
The lack of effort to distinguish between the two cases seems to have generated a lot of confusion (at least it got me for a while).