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saturn comments on Decision theory: Why Pearl helps reduce “could” and “would”, but still leaves us with at least three alternatives - Less Wrong
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"If that piece of butter had been heated to 150°F, it would not have melted" can be read as "that piece of butter has not been heated to 150°F, or it did not melt, or both," or "it is not the case that both that piece butter has melted and that piece of butter has been heated to 150°F."