Let the dilemma be, "I will ask all people who wake up in green rooms if they are willing to take the bet 'Create 1 paperclip if the logical coinflip came up heads, destroy 3 paperclips if the logical coinflip came up tails'. (Should they disagree on their answers, I will destroy 5 paperclips.)" Then a paperclip maximizer, before the experiment, wants the paperclip maximizers who wake up in green rooms to refuse the bet. But a conscious paperclip maximizer who updates on anthropic evidence, who wakes up in a green room, will want to take the bet, with expected utility ((90% * +1 paperclip) + (10% * -3 paperclips)) = +0.6 paperclips.

That last calculation doesn't look right to me : the paperclip maximizer in the green room still knows that there are other paperclip maximizers in red rooms who will refuse the bet whether or not they rely on anthropic evidence. So the expected utility of taking the bet would be 100% * - 5 paperclips.

Or did I misunderstand something?