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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Outlawing Anthropics: An Updateless Dilemma - Less Wrong
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Actually... how is this an anthropic situation AT ALL?
I mean, wouldn't it be equivalent to, say, gather 20 rational people (That understand PD, etc etc etc, and can certainly manage to agree to coordinate with each other) that are allowed to meet with each other in advance and discuss the situation...
I show up and tell them that I have two buckets of marbles, some of which are green, some of which are red
One bucket has 18 green and 2 red, and the other bucket has 18 red and 2 green.
I will (already have) flipped a logical coin. Depending on the outcome, I will use either one bucket or the other.
After having an opportunity to discuss strategy, they will be allowed to reach into the bucket without looking, pull out a marble, look at it, then, if it's green choose if to pay and steal, etc etc etc. (in case it's not obvious, the payout rules being equivalent to the OP)
As near as I can determine, this situation is entirely equivalent to the OP and is in no way an anthropic one. If the OP actually is an argument against anthropic updates in the presence of logical uncertainty... then it's actually an argument against the general case of Bayesian updating in the presence of logical uncertainty, even when there's no anthropic stuff going on at all!
EDIT: oh, in case it's not obvious, marbles are not replaced after being drawn from the bucket.
That uncertainty is logical seems to be irrelevant here.
Agreed. But I seem to recall seeing some comments about distinguishing between quantum and logical uncertainty, etc etc, so figured may as well say that it at least is equivalent given that it's the same type of uncertainty as in the original problem and so on...