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Christian_Szegedy comments on Outlawing Anthropics: An Updateless Dilemma - Less Wrong
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Very enlightening!
It just shows that the OP was an overcomplicated example generating confusion about the update.
[EDIT] Deleted rest of the comment due to revised opinion here: http://lesswrong.com/lw/17c/outlawing_anthropics_an_updateless_dilemma/13hk