Vladimir_Nesov comments on Outlawing Anthropics: An Updateless Dilemma - Less Wrong

26 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 08 September 2009 06:31PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (194)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: CarlShulman 09 September 2009 08:20:24PM *  1 point [-]

The OB/LW/SL4/TOElist/polymathlist group is one intellectual community drawing on similar prior work that hasn't been broadly disseminated.

The same arguments apply with much greater force to the the causal decision theory vs evidential decision theory debate.

The interns wound up more focused on their group projects. As it happens, I had told Katja Grace that I was going to write up a post showing the difference between UDT and SIA (using my apples example which is isomorphic with the example above), but in light of this post it seems needless.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 10 September 2009 12:35:28PM 4 points [-]

UDT is basically the bare definition of reflective consistency: it is a non-solution, just statement of the problem in constructive form. UDT says that you should think exactly the same way as the "original" you thinks, which guarantees that the original you won't be disappointed in your decisions (reflective consistency). It only looks good in comparison to other theories that fail this particular requirement, but otherwise are much more meaningful in their domains of application.

TDT fails reflective consistency in general, but offers a correct solution in a domain that is larger than those of other practically useful decision theories, while retaining their expressivity/efficiency (i.e. updating on graphical models).