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Johnicholas comments on Forcing Anthropics: Boltzmann Brains - Less Wrong
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Isn't the argument in one false? If one applies bayes' theorem, with initial prob. 50% and new likelihood ratio of a billion to one, don't you get 500000000 to one chances?
I think you may be sincerely confused. Would you please reword your question?
If your question is whether someone (either me or the OP) has committed a multiplication error - yes, it's entirely possible, but multiplication is not the point - the point is anthropic reasoning and whether "I am a Bolzmann brain" is a simple hypothesis.