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Johnicholas comments on Formalizing informal logic - Less Wrong
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Reading this comment makes me think that the problem of building formal tools to aid inference is um, not exactly a million miles away from the object-level problem of building AGI. Hierarchical models, bayes nets, meta-arguments about reliability of approximations. Perhaps the next thing we'll be asking for is some way to do interventions in the real world to support causal reasoning?
What evidence would convince you personally that some purported Seed AGI was in fact Friendly?
Sound arguments are central to Friendly AGI research. The arguments cannot be too long, either. If someone hands you a giant proof, and you accept it as evidence without understanding it, then your implicit argument is something like "from expert testimony" or "long proofs that look valid to spot-checks are likely to be sound".