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Kaj_Sotala comments on The New Nostradamus - Less Wrong
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Do we have any serious hard-to-fake evidence that this is true? Examples given might all well be cherry-picked datapoints.
I was hoping somebody would be familiar with his work from before. I didn't go hunting around for his papers, since I'm no expert on international politics and would have to spend as much if not more time figuring out what the outcomes were than researching his actual predictions.