Alicorn comments on The New Nostradamus - Less Wrong

13 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 12 September 2009 02:42PM

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Tags: self_deception prediction politics

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Comment author: billswift 12 September 2009 10:30:02PM *  4 points [-]

Tetlock says that it's very easy to write very simple computer programs that beat all of the people he assessed.

This is probably related to the fallacy of college admissions. Everyone in admissions thinks they can do better a job of predicting college success by using more criteria and their own professional judgement, and in every test using the SAT alone does better in aggregate.

Comment author: Alicorn 12 September 2009 10:54:42PM 4 points [-]

For more on this and related phenomena, see Michael Bishop, "In Praise of Epistemic Irresponsibility: How Lazy And Ignorant Can You Be?"

Comment author: roland 13 September 2009 06:46:27AM 0 points [-]

Great paper, I think it warrants a posting here on lw.

Comment author: Alicorn 13 September 2009 12:53:05PM 1 point [-]

I will probably have time to do this tomorrow or the day after. It would probably be a suitable topic.

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